Last updated on July 26, 2021
When covid came, my 26 year old trader did not believe there was a crisis brewing. When he saw it in Europe it was discounted. “That just can’t happen here in NY”.
Then one day his pal heard of a guy that heard of a guy in NJ that got it and before long he was tripping over cases on broadway. At this point he panicked.
Then after his favorite restaurant on Stone St was closed, he bought into the stay-at-home stocks and bought Zoom et al into the stratosphere. He sold Travel etc.
Then more over reaction – Then the holy grail – a vaccine and time to dump that tech. Buy the cruise lines and so on.
But the false dawn came and the holy grail was an imposter. So back come the FANGs
And so to now…… Tom, or whatever his name is, has spent getting on for 10% of his life in this crisis and for all he knows it is never going. CNN is reporting every night and the 10Y treasury has lost it’s anchor.
Tom has got lockdown-itus.
There are some secular changes at work here
- Tom is happy now buying even everyday stuff from Amazon
- Tom is waiting to book that trip-of-a-lifetime
- Tom wants a bigger house
- Tom quite likes working a day or so from home.
- Tom uses Clubhouse, Zoom, Uber, upgraded fibre broadband, watches TikTok influencers
- Tom want’s one of those snazzy new electric cars full of Semiconductors
So we can look thru Covid now! The only questions are the macro issues of Fed tapering, inflation and stimulus. We will cover them in the next post.
Disclaimer – we do own both FANG and Amazon stocks, and may consider reducing holdings or adding.